Laguna Watershed Knowledgebase

In the face of global climate change, ecologists forecast unprecedented species range shifts and disassociations of ecological communities. While climate change prediction modeling is applied to tackle uncertainty as to species’ and ecosystem response within various climate change scenarios, we also need to incorporate the evolutionary potential for rapid species adaptation to avoid local extinction and resist range shifts. Contrary to popular belief, evolutionary change arises not only over millennia, but can occur rapidly, in decades, within ecological time scales. This micro-evolutionary potential of species has been demonstrated by investigations into species adaptations to new environments and to rapid human-induced change.

Changing climatic conditions such as drought, timing shifts, and increased moisture will select for appropriate adaptations within species, and are applied e.g. in studies to breed more drought tolerant crops. Such genomic approaches and species translocation studies are essential in showing us the possibilities, limits for, and rates of species adaptations, and will allow us to model these within climate change scenarios.

The raw materials for adaptation at the population level are: heritable genetic variation, trait correlations, gene flow, plasticity, and demography. Considering these factors and the relevant evolutionary processes, restoration biologists will be able to manipulate the genetic structure of source populations to maximize the adaptive potential of restored populations. To increase the short- and long-term success of conservation and restoration efforts in the face of global climate change an understanding of the micro-evolutionary processes affecting species are crucial. Therefore, micro-evolutionary thinking needs to be incorporated into management decisions in conservation and restoration ecology.